Petraeus to the CIA
The apparent appointment of David Petraeus to lead the Central Intelligence Agency has short and long term implications. In the short term, it signifies that the war in Afghanistan is about to move underground. The numbers no longer justify our continued presence there. If Al Qaeda has been reduced to only a few hundred foreign fighters hunkered down in Pakistan, having over a hundred thousand troops in Afghanistan only succeeds in providing the Taliban with over a hundred thousand targets. The only effective forces in the region now are CIA operatives in Pakistan. And yes, I know Pakistan is paying lip service to those calling for the end of CIA involvement in Pakistan, but that is only the public line. Behind the scenes, the CIA hasn't missed a beat in their war against both Taliban leaders and their AQ cohorts. The drone war is full on. Expect the much-anticipated July decision to be a rapid withdrawal of ground forces from Afghanistan while the CIA takes over the primary war effort -- a secret war in Pakistan.
I find the long-term implications much more interesting, however. During his military career, Petraeus has been religiously apolitical, even to the point of refusing to vote. He learned his lesson from the failures of Douglas MacArthur. General MacArthur thrust himself into the thick of political decisions, violating the DMZ between American politics and the American military, with predictable results. That does not mean, of course, that generals have not in the past successfully made the transition from military to political leadership. The key has been to engineer a transition period. Dwight Eisenhower waited seven years after the end of World War II before he ran for the White House. Ulysses S. Grant enjoyed the four-year term of Andrew Johnson before ascending to the Presidency.
Petraeus now ends his military career and begins his political career. And make no mistake, directing the CIA is an intensely political job. He will make a huge difference in the future of the Arab Spring, helping reshape the Middle East in ways yet undetermined. He will expand his knowledge of Europe and the Far East. He will become informed, for the first time, about the intricacies of South America and Africa. In short, he will receive an education in the ways of the world. Perfect for a future Presidential candidate.
He will also be in place for several years to come. Obama will certainly leave him in place until well after the 2012 election. Should a Republican upset Obama, Petraeus can pick his own retirement date. If Obama wins, Petraeus will become a Republican President-in-Waiting with a bi-partisan resume. It will be a future even the disciplined Petraeus will find hard to resist.
A caveat: The first 4 Directors of the CIA were all active military, but more recently, VADM William Raborn retired before becoming DCI in 1963, and ADM Stansfield Turner retired from the Navy one year into his four-year term as DCI under Pres. Carter. Under Pres. Bush, AF Gen. Michael Hayden retired from the Air Force 2 years into his 3 year term as DCI. I would think there would be significant pressure during the confirmation hearings to keep the CIA separate from the military today, especially after the Bush administration.
