You may have heard of the Google flu project. Google found that it could track flu outbreaks by tracking Google searches for flu. It seems Google tracking of the flu was as accurate as CDC tracking, but came 1-2 weeks earlier. I tried the same analysis with fishing. Tracking searches for trout showed spikes in trout season. Walleye searches correspond to the weeks in late spring, early summer when walleyes are biting. But what would a trend analysis of searches for "Great Depression" show? You might think it would be a flat line until recently, and in fact, there have been significant spikes lately, but look at this chart:

Look at the incredibly regular and seasonal patterns! Concern about the Great Depression regularly diminishes in the summer, increases in the fall, drops briefly after Christmas, then returns in the winter and spring. This might mean that if Obama is looking for the right time to convince people that the worst is over, and that they should try spending again, he should wait until late June, and then hope for the best over the next two months. Concerns will return, of course, but perhaps by then the real crisis will have passed.

For the complete Google trend analysis, click here.